569
FNUS22 KWNS 260559
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE CA/GREAT
BASIN REGION THROUGH DAY 2/WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS EAST OF A PERSISTING
SURFACE LOW WILL PROMOTE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN. FARTHER EAST, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION TO
A DROUGHT-STRESSED LANDSCAPE.
..EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOVERING UPPER LOW WILL
SUSTAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND RH
REDUCTIONS OF 10-20% WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AMID AVAILABLE DRY FUELS.
..NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
PROLONGED LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS EASTERN MT. HOWEVER, RECENT
GUIDANCE PORTRAYS INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS FLOW
TRANSITIONS SOUTHEASTERLY. MODEST SURFACE RH OF 30-40% MAY ALLEVIATE
BROADER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY ARISE
IF MOISTURE DOES NOT ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOK CYCLES.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 05/26/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0226 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON D2/TUESDAY AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH/GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST.
..NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING LEE
TROUGH/STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON D2/TUESDAY, WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
AROUND 15-25 MPH AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES AND RH REDUCTIONS TO NEAR
15% ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. WITH DRY FUELS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA, THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO A WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS; HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NORTHWARD SHIFTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO INCREASES WITH
WESTWARD EXTENT. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOK CYCLES.
..GREAT BASIN
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PROMOTE A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF
20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AMID THIS STRENGTHENING GRADIENT, WITH
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES SUPPORTING RH REDUCTIONS TO
15-20% (LOCALLY LOWER). ACCELERATING MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH (PERHAPS HIGHER IN EXPOSED,
ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS). WITH NEAR CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE
REGION, THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF DRIER FINE FUELS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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