329
FNUS22 KWNS 261951
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP AS D1/TUESDAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
D2/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MT WILL
PROMOTE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO ISOLATED
HEAVIER RAIN CORES, ALLOWING DRIER FUELS TO REMAIN LARGELY
RECEPTIVE. DESPITE SOME UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT RH
REDUCTIONS OF 15-20% ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MT. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS
HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO COVER THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
..GREAT BASIN
STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
RELATED SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEASTERN NV/NORTHWESTERN UT WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, UPPER CO RIVER BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH (LOCALLY
30 MPH IN FAVORABLE TERRAIN) AND MINIMUM RH OF 10-20% WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME TRIMMING OF EXISTING ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WAS NECESSARY ACROSS
CENTRAL UT DUE TO RECENT WETTING RAINFALL LEADING TO REDUCED FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS.
..WILLIAMS.. 05/26/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0226 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON D2/TUESDAY AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH/GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST.
..NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING LEE
TROUGH/STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON D2/TUESDAY, WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
AROUND 15-25 MPH AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES AND RH REDUCTIONS TO NEAR
15% ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. WITH DRY FUELS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA, THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO A WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS; HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NORTHWARD SHIFTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO INCREASES WITH
WESTWARD EXTENT. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOK CYCLES.
..GREAT BASIN
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PROMOTE A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF
20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AMID THIS STRENGTHENING GRADIENT, WITH
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES SUPPORTING RH REDUCTIONS TO
15-20% (LOCALLY LOWER). ACCELERATING MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH (PERHAPS HIGHER IN EXPOSED,
ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS). WITH NEAR CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE
REGION, THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF DRIER FINE FUELS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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