605
ACUS11 KWNS 262329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262328
TXZ000-NMZ000-270100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 262328Z - 270100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR
SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
WEAK BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE GUADALUPE
AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS. THIS
BOUNDARY DEMARCATES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S F), WHICH
IS SUPPORTING WEAK BUOYANCY (GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR UPSTREAM OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS
(20-25 KTS PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS) IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPDRAFTS INTO MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STEEP LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE A THREAT FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL. A LANDSPOUT ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT SHOULD A MORE ROBUST,
LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT INTERACT WITH ENHANCED SURFACE VERTICAL VORTICITY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
WANE AFTER ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OWING TO LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION. GIVEN THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND THE EXPECTED
SHORT-TERM NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT, WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
..CHALMERS/THOMPSON.. 05/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MAF...
LAT...LON 32140467 32350460 32620427 32760388 32730334 32600301
32110279 31110269 30410254 30110244 29590256 29170280
29070301 29230349 29710389 30460435 30970468 31540485
31850479 32140467
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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