015
ACUS11 KWNS 270906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270906
TXZ000-271100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245...
VALID 270906Z - 271100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUES
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SOUTH TEXAS -- WITHIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EVOLVING ALONG THE
EAST/WEST-ORIENTED PORTION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTH TX. HERE, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 7.5 C/KM PER
EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS) ATOP RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
(MIDDLE/UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS) ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY -- EVEN IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THIS INSTABILITY AND AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. A GUST OF 58 MPH WAS
RECENTLY MEASURED IN LAREDO TX AT 0841 UTC. GIVEN RECENT RADAR
TRENDS AND COLD POOL EVOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE RISK
OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..WEINMAN.. 05/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 27339836 26989856 26819902 26889952 27519963 27789982
28029969 28189935 28239894 28109855 27829826 27339836
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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