933
ACUS01 KWNS 271246
SWODY1
SPC AC 271245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG
TO SEVERE GUSTS (50-65 MPH) CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
..MID-ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE UPPER OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE PERIOD.
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A LEAD DISTURBANCE OVER
SOUTHERN OH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS, AN ANALYZED FRONTAL ZONE HAS BEEN MODULATED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A MOIST
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S F, WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CLUSTERS ARE FORECAST TO EVOLVE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS (50-65 MPH)
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CORES THIS AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHERN ID INTO EASTERN OR
A BELT OF STRONG EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST
ID INTO SOUTHEAST OR TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY, DEEP-LAYER
CYCLONE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA. HEATING OF AN ADEQUATELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW 20-45 KT
700-500 MB FLOW (STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST OR) AND MEAN STORM MOTIONS
35-45 KT. THESE FLOW FIELDS COUPLED WITH EVAPORATIVELY COOLED
DOWNDRAFTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MIX OF QUICKLY MOVING CELLS AND
SMALLER-SCALE LINEAR CLUSTERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POTENTIALLY BE
CAPABLE OF SEVERE GUSTS (60-75 MPH) BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MID-LATE
EVENING.
..WESTERN GREAT LAKES
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A POCKET OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER WISCONSIN, WHERE MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. AN ISOLATED RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
..SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/WEST TEXAS/FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM AN EXPANSIVE OVERNIGHT MCS ALONG THE TX
COAST, AN AIRMASS FEATURING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL
DESTABILIZE BENEATH A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND AGGREGATE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL/SEVERE GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS.
..SMITH/WEINMAN.. 05/27/2026
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