337
ACUS11 KWNS 272015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272014
WIZ000-MNZ000-272145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL WISCONSIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 272014Z - 272145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED HAIL
OR DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2010 UTC, VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WI. STRONG HEATING OF A MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (SBCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG) AMID STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONTINUED
HEATING AND WEAK ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL AID IN CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT
IS NOT OVERLY STRONG, BUT AREA RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION.
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL, WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE LOWEST FEW KM POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING DAMAGING GUSTS.
THE INITIAL STORMS, LIKELY MULTI CELLULAR, SHOULD GRADUALLY MATURE
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE BUOYANCY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. WHILE
SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY STRONG, A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THESE
STORMS, BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION, KEEPING THE THREAT ISOLATED. A WW IS UNLIKELY.
..LYONS/GLEASON.. 05/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45649223 45648990 45528903 45078844 44468821 43768816
43398821 43118873 43138955 43329049 43749123 44779210
45189236 45649223
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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