416
ACUS02 KWNS 281720
SWODY2
SPC AC 281718
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MONTANA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL OR STRONG GUSTS FROM EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD KANSAS ON
FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..SYNOPSIS
A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ON
FRIDAY AND START TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS
THIS OCCURS, LEE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST.
..WESTERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA ON
FRIDAY AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID 50S AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOL. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA WHICH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THESE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID-AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHWARD, POTENTIALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO
ONE OR MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BACK UP NEAR THE TERRAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO
TYPICAL TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EMERGE ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO EMERGE FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ~40 KNOT JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE DRYLINE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
AMPLE SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND STORM ORGANIZATION MAY EXIST BETWEEN
MIDLAND AND AMARILLO AT THE NOSE OF THIS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW.
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THE GREATER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FARTHER EAST
AND THUS, STORM INTENSITY MAYBE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED. THEREFORE,
HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES REMAIN 5% AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMID WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS ZONE, HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER WHICH MAY CHALLENGE STORM
ORGANIZATION.
..BENTLEY.. 05/28/2026
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