732
ACUS11 KWNS 290016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290015
OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-290215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE RATON MESA AREA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 290015Z - 290215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. A WATCH IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL COLORADO FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
INITIAL ATTEMPTS WEAKENED RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER INITIAL DEVELOPMENT,
THE MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE TOWER ALONG THE BORDER OF PARK AND CLEAR
CREEK COUNTIES HAS BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HERE IS UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG, LARGELY OWING TO MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM. KINEMATICALLY SPEAKING, THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY SUITABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH MODEST
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
RESULT IS EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-40 KNOTS,
WITH VARIATIONS LARGELY OWING TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLIES.
LOOKING FORWARD, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE RISING AHEAD OF THE STRONG
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. THIS, ALONG WITH THE MARGINAL
KINEMATIC FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT, WITH THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS BEING LARGELY TIED TO
THE TERRAIN, WITH WEAKENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN
TO THE EAST.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST, NEAR RATON MESA, THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ONGOING
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT INTO THE
EVENING. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUITED FOR AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS, WITH THE
LIMITING FACTORS BEING THE RIDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND OVERALL
WEAKER MIDLEVEL FLOW (AND WEAKEN VERTICAL SHEAR).
A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED FOR EITHER REGIME, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.
..MARSH/GUYER.. 05/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...GJT...
LAT...LON 40580623 41100608 41100533 40340485 39680483 38310495
37700427 37370348 36870294 36640377 36800521 37510621
39490623 40580623
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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