001
ACUS02 KWNS 290559
SWODY2
SPC AC 290557
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY FROM PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA/EASTERN WYOMING/NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHEAST MONTANA...
AT MID-LEVELS, A LOW WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING ON
SATURDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
OVER MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MAXIMIZED
NEAR A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE. IN RESPONSE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND NEAR THE MOIST AXIS, MLCAPE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SUGGEST THAT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING, AS A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDELY-SPACED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA, BUT
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER WHICH WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE
THREAT MORE LOCALIZED.
..KANSAS/OKLAHOMA/WEST TEXAS
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A SHARPLY DEFINED
DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. TO
THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF MUCH OF THE DRYLINE, 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP STORM COVERAGE ISOLATED.
..BROYLES.. 05/29/2026
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