847
ACUS11 KWNS 291930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291929
TXZ000-292130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291929Z - 292130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 4-5 PM CDT, WITH A THREAT OF
HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME AREAS OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS
PERSIST. LOW-LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION, WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR/ABOVE 1500
J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN.
DECREASING CINH AND A SUBTLE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE
TX/NM BORDER WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMUM
WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40+ KT), AND A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS OR CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE WITH TIME.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING CONDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL IF ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP. RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ENCOURAGE INCREASING OUTFLOW WITH TIME, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS (POTENTIALLY 75+ MPH). ISSUANCE OF
ONE OR MORE WATCHES IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN ORDER TO
ADDRESS THESE THREATS.
..DEAN/HART.. 05/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 31070288 33830259 34450152 35080070 35030044 34910009
34260022 33080065 30990130 30340181 30390256 30590282
31070288
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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