736
ACUS11 KWNS 291951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291951
MTZ000-292145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 291951Z - 292145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN CENTRAL MONTANA. STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND THREAT. A
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...WHILE SOME MLCIN REMAINS WITHIN THE PLAINS, CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
MONTANA. THE 18Z OBSERVED GREAT FALLS SOUNDING SHOWED NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHEN MODIFYING THE SOUNDING FOR
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO
SIMILARLY STEEP. THAT SAID, THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE SINCE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S F. WITH
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHEAST OFF OF THE TERRAIN. SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, THOUGH A STRONGER CORE COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. STORM COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. ANY
GREATER SEVERE WIND THREAT WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON LOCALIZED
CLUSTERING OF STORMS/OUTFLOW.
..WENDT/HART.. 05/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 46181131 47061205 48531217 49061133 49070964 48690859
47920857 46330918 46181131
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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