877
ACUS11 KWNS 292019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292019
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-292215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FRONT RANGE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292019Z - 292215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A
WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF AN MCV IN NORTHEAST COLORADO, FORCING
FOR ASCENT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN HAS PROMOTED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ALONG PARTS OF
THE FRONT RANGE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. OUTFLOW PRODUCTION
WITH THESE STORMS IS EVIDENT. VAD DATA FROM KFTG AND KPUX SHOW WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (AROUND 20 KT). A VERY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
EXISTS IN MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO. SEVERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY RISK WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER
SURFACE MOISTURE DOES EXIST IN WESTERN KANSAS. SOME INTENSIFICATION
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN INGEST MORE BUOYANT AIR. WHILE LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH A DISCRETE STORM WITHIN THE GREATER MOISTURE,
STORM MODE BY THAT POINT MAY NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE. A BRIEF TORNADO
COULD ALSO OCCUR GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE MVC AND DCVZ.
..WENDT/HART.. 05/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38810466 39590478 40300456 40790369 40910314 40880238
40790214 40220180 38680162 37840193 37540243 37270279
37170299 37820369 38810466
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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