083
ACUS11 KWNS 292223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292223
OKZ000-300030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250...
VALID 292223Z - 300030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 TO 75 MPH AND/OR
LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PSEUDO-DRYLINE/
SURFACE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE OUTFLOW GENERATION AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAJOR,
ALFALFA, AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AS OF 22:15 UTC. THE INFLOW AIR MASS
TO THESE STORMS IS QUITE MOIST WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70, WHICH COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THE CURRENT KVNX VWP
IS EXHIBITING VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT, HOWEVER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
ONLY AROUND 25 KT. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL
COMPENSATE FOR THE MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR TO SOME EXTENT, THE
CURRENT PARAMETER SPACE IS SUGGESTIVE OF PREDOMINANTLY MULTI-CELL
STORM MODES, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
A RECENT WIND GUST OF 68 MPH WAS REPORTED NEAR LAHOMA, OK, AND
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 65-75 MPH WILL REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT HAZARD WITH THE ONGOING STORMS, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT
TERM. OTHER MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN STORM COMPLEX MAY EVENTUALLY POSE A LARGE HAIL
THREAT THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS AND INCREASES THE ODDS OF MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.
..MEAD.. 05/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36269957 36999943 36979690 36999596 36179597 36159663
35959663 35939711 35709714 35699826 35529832 35519863
35429866 35459937 36269957
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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