181
ACUS01 KWNS 301957
SWODY1
SPC AC 301956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VALID 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE GUSTS (SOME POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 75
MPH), LARGE HAIL, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (SEE BELOW) REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH MAINLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE HAZARDS
PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY A SEVERE HAIL/ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NE INTO KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE AND
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW 9 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (PER THE
18Z DDC OBSERVED SOUNDING) AND FORECAST 4000+ J/KG MLCAPE VIA
DEEP-WIDE BUOYANCY PROFILES (PER LATEST NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KS. AS SUCH, SWATHS OF SEVERE WINDS (WITH SOME
GUSTS POTENTIALLY WELL EXCEEDING 75 MPH) ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE
MCSS PROPAGATE INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS LATER THIS
EVENING.
..SQUITIERI.. 05/30/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026/
..CENTRAL KS INTO OK
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY, WITH A 40-50 KNOT MID LEVEL
JET MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL MAINTAIN A
ZONE OF HIGH DEWPOINTS AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KS AND NORTHERN OK. THIS REGION WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM ALONG A DIFFUSE DRYLINE FROM
SOUTHWEST KS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER. TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 100F WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER,
PROMOTING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS DESPITE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THAT
FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE HIGH CAPE ZONE, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID-EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER EASTERN NE/SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO.
..NORTHEAST CO/NE PANHANDLE
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW HAVE ADVECTED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF CO. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS REGION, AS WELL AS THE ALONG THE DCVZ AND
NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER NORTHWEST KS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A COMBINATION OF
SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN AT LEAST
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE INTO CENTRAL SD BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.
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