958
ACUS11 KWNS 302320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302320
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-310045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND EXTREME EASTERN WYOMING
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252...
VALID 302320Z - 310045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #252. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND GROW UPSCALE INTO
NORTH-SOUTH LINEAR CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO EASTERN WYOMING.
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MUCAPE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE, WITH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IS MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARIES, WHICH WILL FAVOR
SEEDING OF DOWNSTREAM UPDRAFTS, ACTING AS AN OVERALL CHECK ON
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. THUS, DESPITE OVERALL AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
WOULD SUPPORT A SUSTAINED HAIL AND WIND THREAT THIS EVENING, THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR ANY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND TO OCCUR ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS WITH THE STRONGEST OF UPDRAFT CORES AS THE OVERALL
COMPLEX MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.
..MARSH.. 05/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...
LAT...LON 40130499 44210505 45970504 46210410 45950324 44340278
42980271 41080287 39730293 39180389 39500486 40130499
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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