248
ACUS11 KWNS 310001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310001
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-310130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 254...
VALID 310001Z - 310130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 254 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AROUND SUNSET BEFORE WANING MUCH LATER THIS
EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ARC FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THEN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS REGION IS LIKELY BEING GLANCED BY
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING, NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS AREA IS LIKELY EXPERIENCING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 300-MB SUBTROPICAL JET AND SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
MUCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE QUITE EXTREME, WITH A RESERVOIR
OF 4000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING ARC OF
CONVECTION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE LINE REMAINS ON THE WEAKER
SIDE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH ONLY 25-35 KNOTS OBJECTIVELY
ANALYZED. THAT SAID, SHEAR VECTORS ARE MOSTLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARY AND THE EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
WITH TIME THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO FORECAST TO
INCREASE AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET. AS THIS HAPPENS, STRENGTHENING,
STRONGLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT, LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY SUPPORT A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH THIS EVENING.
..MARSH.. 05/31/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40020207 40980207 41000261 42950273 42990021 42120017
42109963 41759966 41779916 41069920 41010022 40730022
40689998 40459998 40300017 39620017 39590071 39990079
40020207
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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