458
ACUS11 KWNS 310149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310148
SDZ000-NEZ000-310315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252...
VALID 310148Z - 310315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #252. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
SHORT TERM. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED TO DETERMINE IF AN EXTENSION IN
TIME FOR THE WATCH IS NEEDED, BUT ONE IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY CONTINUES TO WANE ACROSS MOST OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #252 THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HERE, A
SLOWLY WESTWARD MOVING NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED/INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES. THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THESE STORMS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND
1000-2000 J/KG, WHILE THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAS IMPROVED THIS EVENING
TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST CORES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #252 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z (9 PM
MDT). TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE IF A LOCAL
EXTENSION IN TIME IS NEEDED, BUT CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT
ABSENT SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY, THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE ON TIME.
..MARSH.. 05/31/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 41610265 42720354 44640359 45100316 45160251 45030217
43420203 41840226 41610265
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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