621
ACUS11 KWNS 310211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310210
NEZ000-SDZ000-310345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 254...
VALID 310210Z - 310345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 254 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS QUICKLY WANED,
BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
WEAKENING STORMS. PORTIONS OF THE LINEAR OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED
HAIL/WIND THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM.
DISCUSSION...A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ARC OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG THIS ARC OF STORMS
REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG,
WITH 2000 J/KG REMAINING WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL.
KINEMATICALLY, HOWEVER, THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY ADVANCING OUT
OF THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WHICH IS EVIDENT BY AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS LINE.
SURGING OUTFLOW MOVING EAST FROM THE WEAKENING NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTERSECTS NORTHWARD MOVING
OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTION OF THE LINE IN THE
VICINITY OF THEDFORD, NE. HERE, THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY APPEARS TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME CONTINUED HAIL/WIND THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM. A
SHORT-TERM HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST BETWEEN BROKEN BOW AND ORD,
NE, WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HAVE NOT FULLY OUTRUN THE PARENT
UPDRAFTS. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE SURGING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..MARSH.. 05/31/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 41069932 41450072 42120170 42650202 43150167 43330082
43149944 42549870 41729846 41109890 41069932
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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