606
ACUS02 KWNS 311727
SWODY2
SPC AC 311725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
OZARKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
..CENTRAL PLAINS
AN UPPER LOW WITH LEADING NEGATIVE-TILT WAVE WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS
MT/DAKOTAS ON MONDAY, WITH MODERATE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WITH 35-40 KT AT 500 MB. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO REMAIN
COOL ACROSS THIS REGION, LEADING TO STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND THE
PANHANDLES AREA, WITH STRENGTHENING EASTERLIES ACROSS KS/NE/CO. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TO THE FRONT RANGE AS
DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS. MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500
J/KG APPEARS REASONABLE, AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL APPROACH 50 KT
OVER EASTERN CO DUE TO STRONG DIRECTION CHANGE WITH HEIGHT.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BY 21Z FROM SOUTHEAST WY SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE, WITH A FEW CELLS OR BOWING STRUCTURE PROCEEDING
INTO WESTERN NE/KS BY EVENING. ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.00" WILL BE
POSSIBLE INITIALLY, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO. OTHERWISE,
STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE SEVERE GUSTS AS OUTFLOW PRODUCTION INCREASES.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL
NEAR/NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST KS WHERE HEATING AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
..FROM MO INTO MS/AL
AN MCS OR REMNANTS THEREOF IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SOUTHERN MO MONDAY
MORNING, WITH SEVERAL MODELS SUGGESTING STORM REGENERATION ALONG THE
OUTFLOW AT IT TRAVELS ACROSS TN, NORTHERN MS AND AL. IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE SEVERE, THUS WILL MAINTAIN
MARGINAL RISK. OTHERWISE, NEW STORM GENERATION IS POSSIBLE FROM AR
INTO MS AND AL NEAR OR WEST OF THE EARLY DAY ACTIVITY/OUTFLOW. WINDS
ALOFT ARE EVEN WEAKER WITH WESTWARD EXTENT, WHICH LENDS UNCERTAINTY
TO ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, STRONG INSTABILITY WITH NEAR
3000 J/KG MUCAPE AND AMPLE PWAT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOCALLY STRONG
TO SEVERE GUSTS.
..JEWELL.. 05/31/2026
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