036
ACUS11 KWNS 312050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312050
OKZ000-312315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 312050Z - 312315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING HIGH-BASED
CUMULUS EVOLVING WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OK -- WHERE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS EVIDENT. CONTINUED
HEATING IN THIS ZONE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S
AMID MIDDLE/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE YIELDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. AROUND 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AND A LOCALLY GREATER SEVERE RISK, THOUGH MOST STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHORT-LIVED.
..WEINMAN/THOMPSON.. 05/31/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
LAT...LON 35589905 35729894 36059858 36489805 36829776 36879751
36749713 36429708 35939724 35299817 35269854 35379897
35589905
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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