994
ACUS11 KWNS 010654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010654
MOZ000-KSZ000-010900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258...
VALID 010654Z - 010900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL CONTINUES IN
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WHICH MAY INCREASINGLY BECOME
FOCUSED NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
THROUGH 3-4 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...ONGOING STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST (20-25+ KT),
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER AMBIENT MEAN FLOW, WITH
INCREASING INHIBITION PROBABLY BECOMING A MORE SUBSTANTIVE FACTOR
CONCERNING STORM INTENSITIES AND ORGANIZATION. INHIBITION HAS BEEN
INCREASING WITH CONTINUED SLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING, AND LATEST
RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE AIDED FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BY MID-LAYER WARMING AND HEIGHT RISES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH DAYBREAK REMAINS UNCLEAR. HOWEVER, A
NARROW SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET, ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT BELOW
1.5 KM AGL, GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME MAY FOCUS STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS VICINITY INTO
AREAS WEST OF COLUMBIA THROUGH 08-09Z. AS THIS OCCURS, THIS MAY
SHIFT THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF STRONGER AND UPSCALE GROWING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ROUGHLY ALONG I-70.
..KERR.. 06/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38949481 39669384 39469168 38709104 37989232 37539346
37739578 38439503 38949481
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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