081
ACUS11 KWNS 010903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010902
MOZ000-ILZ000-011100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260...
VALID 010902Z - 011100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ORGANIZE WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS NEAR AND WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO THROUGH 5-7 AM
CDT.
DISCUSSION...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NEAR THE
JEFFERSON CITY VICINITY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBIA. THIS IS WHERE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME
FOCUSED, NEAR THE NOSE OF A REMNANT SOUTHWESTERLY NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER JET, WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER DAYBREAK.
BEFORE THIS OCCURS, CONTINUING INFLOW OF SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR WITH SIZABLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (FROM WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS THROUGH I-44
CORRIDOR) COULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH, IN THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODEST NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS APPEARS NEAR
THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING, WHERE THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZING CLUSTER WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION, PARTICULARLY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GREATER
ST. LOUIS.
..KERR.. 06/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 39099172 38568978 37828998 37829108 38399213 39099172
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