481
ACUS11 KWNS 011732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011731
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-011930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...NORTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011731Z - 011930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MO INTO NORTHERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED
OVER THE LAST HOUR. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE BEEN STEEPENING, WITH AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM ANALYZED IN
SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW IS GENERALLY
WEAK, THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
..THORNTON/MOSIER.. 06/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 37329295 37309372 36779383 35929371 35269286 34969238
34599087 35079015 35279015 35519024 35679033 35999075
36579155 37189249 37329295
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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