069
ACUS11 KWNS 011751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011751
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-012015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO...NE PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WY...FAR
SOUTHWEST SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011751Z - 012015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING. LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. ONE OR MORE
WATCHES ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY AGITATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS IS
EVOLVING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CO INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING AMID TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS SHOULD ERODE
REMAINING INHIBITION AND SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. STEEPENING DEEP-LAYER LAPSE
RATES (PER EARLIER DEN ACARS SOUNDING) AND AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR (CHARACTERIZED BY A LONG/MOSTLY STRAIGHT MID/UPPER-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH) WILL FAVOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WITH INITIALLY
DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WHILE UNCERTAIN, A
BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE TERRAIN-INDUCED LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY IS ENHANCED IN EASTERN CO.
WITH TIME, THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS, WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROMOTE A
CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. LOCALIZED
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO EASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS WILL FAVOR AN
INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING. ONE OR MORE
WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
..WEINMAN/MOSIER.. 06/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 38760481 39020525 39540544 40540541 41170535 42000534
42880521 43330481 43560388 43420306 42840253 41970229
40750214 39980232 39370275 39020337 38740419 38760481
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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