568
ACUS11 KWNS 012147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012146
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-012345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...264...
VALID 012146Z - 012345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261, 264
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PROPAGATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE
CONSIDERED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VELOCITY IMAGERY OUT OF CENTRAL AL CONTINUES TO
SHOW POCKETS OF WINDS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SURGING COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF A SOUTHWARD-PROPAGATING
MCS. SIMILARLY, THE KBMX VWP RECENTLY SAMPLED 40-50 KNOT FLOW WITHIN
THE 1-2 KM LAYER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS. WHILE SEVERE WINDS
LIKELY RESIDE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO MOSTLY SHOW GUSTS BETWEEN 30-45 MPH, WHICH HAVE BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR WIND DAMAGE BASED ON RECENT STORM REPORTS.
THE SURGING NATURE OF THE OUTFLOW SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING MAY BE
OBSERVED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, HOWEVER, A POCKET OF MLCAPE OF
AROUND 2500 J/KG IS NOTED DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCS WHERE PULSE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. THIS HINTS THAT NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE AND COULD MAINTAIN SOME
DEGREE OF MCS INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DOWNSTREAM WATCH
ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED AS THE MCS APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF WW 261 AND 264.
..MOORE.. 06/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30648763 30858810 31268835 31878840 32378821 32708813
32618761 32638707 32748651 32878601 32998564 33048535
32958513 30968390 30718413 30548462 30518522 30548604
30618681 30648763
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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