241
ACUS02 KWNS 021721
SWODY2
SPC AC 021719
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MORE SPORADIC
OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH AN
ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THESE
MORNING STORMS. BY MID-AFTERNOON, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. 40+ KNOTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL MODE WITH A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL (SOME VERY LARGE). AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD,
EXPECT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR SEGMENT WITH AN INCREASING
SEVERE WIND THREAT. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST DURING THE
SUPERCELLULAR PHASE, PARTICULARLY IF A STRONGER 30+ KNOT LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS AS FORECAST BY SOME GUIDANCE. THIS TORNADO THREAT COULD
ALSO BE AIDED BY ANY POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM
MORNING CONVECTION.
FARTHER SOUTH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK FARTHER SOUTH WHICH
WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AN
UNCAPPED AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SOME MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT.
..WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
A CLUSTER OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THIS ZONE WILL LIKELY BE A
FOCUS FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY RESULT IN A MESSY
STORM MODE, BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..BENTLEY.. 06/02/2026
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