160
ACUS11 KWNS 021808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021808
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-022045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 021808Z - 022045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS INTO
NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY WEST-TO-EAST FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA, WITH A SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED TO THE NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. SOUTH OF THIS SECONDARY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S F WITH LOW-TO-MID 70S
DEWPOINTS ARE SUPPORTING STRONG BUOYANCY (MLCAPE 3000-3500+ J/KG PER
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS). EXPECTATION IS FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
BEFORE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD.
WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL LIMIT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH VALUES FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW 15-20 KTS. WHILE THIS WILL LARGELY INHIBIT
UPDRAFT/STORM ORGANIZATION, HIGH PWAT CONTENTS (1.7+ INCHES) WITHIN
THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT WATER-LOADED
DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
CORES DESPITE LIMITED EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND ONLY MODESTLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z FWD OBSERVED SOUNDING).
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AND THE RESULTANT LOW SEVERE MAGNITUDE.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 06/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 34419350 34469329 34399315 34289303 33619282 33149280
32529293 31729354 31039503 30859616 30769715 30919774
31189802 31489809 31779800 32009787 32429740 32829683
33289594 33619517 33909421 34129376 34419350
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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