591
ACUS11 KWNS 022248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022248
TXZ000-NMZ000-030115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 022248Z - 030115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SLOW-MOVING BUT VIGOROUS STORMS ARE ONGOING
FROM PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN NM INTO FAR WEST TX AS OF 2230
UTC, WHILE MORE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE WESTERN
TX PANHANDLE. STRONG HEATING AND RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS
RESULTED IN MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION, WITH MLCAPE OF
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG IN PLACE OUTSIDE OF AREAS ALREADY INFLUENCED
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK, BUT THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT IS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 20-25 KT, WITH LOCALLY GREATER VALUES OVER PARTS OF NM. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY, THIS MAGNITUDE OF
DEEP-LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG MULTICELLS
AND PERHAPS A TRANSIENT SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL, WITH ATTENDANT
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS. SOME
CONSOLIDATION OF OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN A SOMEWHAT BROADER AREA OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS FROM
EASTERN NM INTO PARTS OF WEST TX THIS EVENING, BEFORE CONVECTION
GENERALLY WEAKENS WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION.
..DEAN/GUYER.. 06/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 30920518 32200594 33330650 33960465 34660449 35080352
35320312 35830269 36400204 36370169 36060146 35540134
33760218 31830304 29550262 29030308 29180368 29550425
29840455 30490498 30920518
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page