917
ACUS11 KWNS 022356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022356
SDZ000-NEZ000-030200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269...
VALID 022356Z - 030200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO AN EMERGING MCV
MAY PERIODICALLY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS. HOWEVER, THE LONGEVITY AND COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT
IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN POOR ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR. DOWNSTREAM WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST HOUR, REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
GRADUAL EMERGENCE OF A WEAK MCV ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD. NEW CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO THIS FEATURE AND ALONG A COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTH. DESPITE THIS
TREND, MRMS DATA SHOWS THAT ATTENDANT CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOSTLY
SHORT-LIVED (ON THE ORDER OF AN HOUR OR LESS) AND ONLY OCCASIONALLY
INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LIMITS. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF
DIMINISHING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT THAT
IS MODULATING OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. NONETHELESS,
LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATE SUGGEST THIS MCV IS APPROACHING A
REGIONAL BUOYANCY MAXIMUM WHERE MLCAPE IS UPWARDS OF AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS, COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THE MCV/COLD POOL AS THE NOCTURNAL JET INTENSIFIES, MAY SUPPORT
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. GIVEN THE POOR KINEMATICS, ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED AND SHORT LIVED, WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE (THOUGH TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED).
..MOORE.. 06/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44240116 44550073 44920025 45049996 45089944 45019903
44809886 44479870 44079873 43619898 43049968 42890032
42780108 42800156 42860191 43100207 43250199 43360152
43510126 43810114 44240116
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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