745
ACUS11 KWNS 030114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030113
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-030315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269...270...
VALID 030113Z - 030315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269, 270
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL T-STORM DEVELOPMENT NOTED IN GOES IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL MAY CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WW 269 AND WW 270 FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DISCUSSION...GOES IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A RECENT UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST MT ALONG A
RESIDUAL SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IS LIKELY BEING
AUGMENTED BY THE APPROACH OF A SUBTLE PERTURBATION MIGRATING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WY (PER LATEST LOW-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY), WHICH
MAY EXPLAIN THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
45 MINUTES. THE EARLY ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING IS EVIDENT IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL ONLY BE EXACERBATED
HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED EARLIER
TODAY, THE IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATELY
BUOYANT TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
RECENT-HIGH RES GUIDANCE (WHICH APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING LOW-LEVEL
COOLING TRENDS WELL). ADDITIONALLY, 35-40 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SAMPLED BY KBIS HINTS THAT DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BECOME ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS GIVEN THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WITHIN THE RESIDUAL AIR
MASS, BUT SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS SEVERE WIND,
APPEARS POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MATURE.
..MOORE.. 06/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 44890519 45150511 46700375 46770321 46690246 46550225
46290210 45860214 45400245 44770319 44470374 44340425
44330456 44370480 44490500 44620508 44890519
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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