384
ACUS01 KWNS 031153
SWODY1
SPC AC 031151
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2026
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MORE SPORADIC
OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA,
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER MT/WY/ID. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST NE BY AFTERNOON,
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
A BROAD CLUSTER OF WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING
NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SD THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED IN THE
REGION ALONG/NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING, AFFECTING EASTERN SD,
SOUTHEAST ND, AND WESTERN MN. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY RISK EARLY,
WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING AND
AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND RISK. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
NOTABLE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THIS REGION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, SUPPORTIVE OF SOME RISK OF MAINTAINING DISCRETE
MODES AND INCREASING THE RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.
..ELSEWHERE
FARTHER SOUTH, WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND SOUTHWEST TX/SOUTHERN NM.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN RISK.
..HART/KERR.. 06/03/2026
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