298
ACUS11 KWNS 031902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031902
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-032130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 031902Z - 032130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE, WITH A WEAK LOW ANALYZED NORTH OF AMARILLO, TX.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND AN ADDITIONAL SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DOWNSTREAM OF A REMNANT MCV EVIDENT NEAR THE NM/TX/OK
BORDER. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THE 18Z AMA/DDC OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LINGERING INHIBITION IS ERODING AMID
CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING, WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A FURTHER INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCV (30+ KTS AT 4-5 KM AGL SAMPLED BY THE AMA VAD
PROFILE) IS CONTRIBUTING TO LOCALLY ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SHEAR (25-35+
KTS PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS). THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL STORM
ORGANIZATION, WITH MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS WHERE ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCV OVERLAPS
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 7 C/KM SAMPLED BY THE 18Z DDC
SOUNDING).
WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME OWING TO THE
EXPECTATION FOR THE SEVERE THREAT MAGNITUDE TO REMAIN LARGELY
LIMITED, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 06/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 35640137 36370176 36880202 37140209 37650205 38700176
39130141 39100069 38669969 37949919 36979882 36089875
35319894 34559928 34309961 34240005 34430038 34870086
35640137
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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