736
ACUS01 KWNS 032001
SWODY1
SPC AC 032000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2026
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MORE SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY FROM NORTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL ND ALONG A SURFACE
FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE, AND IN ADVANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
MID-UPPER SPEED MAX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 F WITH DEWPOINTS
OF 58-64 F ARE DRIVING MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG, WHILE DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH LENGTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
INITIALLY. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL BE LARGE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING, WITH AN
ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS, PRIOR TO
THE STORMS MOVING EAST OF THE PRIMARY BUOYANCY CORRIDOR.
FARTHER SOUTH, VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER AND STORMS WILL TEND MORE
TOWARD MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SPORADIC DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHER
STORM CLUSTERING IS EXPECTED TOWARD SOUTHWEST KS, TO THE IMMEDIATE
EAST OF AN MCV.
..THOMPSON.. 06/03/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1117 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2026/
..NORTHERN PLAINS
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACE A WAVY AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ND, WESTERN SD TO A
LOW IN THE WY/NE/CO BORDER INTERSECTION VICINITY. A PAIR OF WEAK
LOWS EXIST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL, ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND
THE OTHER ACROSS CENTRAL ND. THIS COLD FRONT, AS WELL AS THESE
SURFACE LOWS, WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
ITS BASE OVER SOUTHEAST MT/EASTERN WY. THIS SHORTWAVE LIKELY HAS AN
ASSOCIATED BELT OF STRONGER FLOW, BUT NO UPPER-AIR DATA WAS
AVAILABLE TO CONFIRM ITS MAGNITUDE. EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON, AUGMENTING THE MORE LOCALIZED/MESOSCALE
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SURFACE FEATURES. THIS INCREASED ASCENT WILL
OCCUR WITHIN A DIURNALLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ATOP LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN 1500
TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AMID STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE.
THE RESULTING ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL
HAZARDS, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD PREDOMINANTLY DICTATED BY STORM
MODE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT, A LINEAR MODE WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE, WITH LARGE TO ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY RISK
EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. STRENGTHENING SURFACE SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME ELONGATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH, MOSTLY FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN SD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ND. THIS AREA IS ALSO THE MOST
LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AS A
RESULT, THERE APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVE INCREASE IN THE OVERALL
TORNADO RISK WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BOTH WITHIN AN ARC THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST NM AND THE
NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE LEE TROUGHING FROM EASTERN
CO INTO SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX. FOR STORMS ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH, WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT HIGH CLOUD
BASES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN OCCASIONALLY
STRONG DOWNBURSTS. FOR STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MCV, ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY RISK, ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL COULD OCCUR
OVER WESTERN KS WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SLIGHTLY STEEPER
THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH.
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