884
ACUS11 KWNS 032150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032150
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-032345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032150Z - 032345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND PERHAPS
SPORADIC LARGE HAIL, THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOCALIZED AND TRANSIENT TO PRECLUDE WATCH
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE DENVER AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON RECENT
MRMS VERTICALLY INTEGRATED ICE TRENDS, A FEW OF THE DEEPER CORES
APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER,
INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE CORES HAVE EXHIBITED SHORT LIFE SPANS THUS FAR
(ON THE ORDER OF 20-40 MINUTES), LIKELY OWING TO THE WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME AND MEAGER DEEP-LAYER WIND SPEEDS. CONSEQUENTLY, IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY BECOME
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AS IT GRADUALLY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN
CO ALONG AN SBCAPE AXIS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THE POOR
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE RECENTLY ANALYZED
TO BE AROUND 9 C/KM, WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON DOWNSTREAM
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF OF 30-40 F WITHIN THE EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR.
AS SUCH, STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IF A MORE CONSOLIDATED, FORWARD-PROPAGATING COLD POOL CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE EMERGING CONVECTION.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY ALSO
DEPICT SEVERAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, HINTING
THAT AMBIENT (THOUGH WEAK) LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. WHILE UNLIKELY, A LANDSPOUT COULD OCCUR IF A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG UPDRAFT CAN DEVELOP ATOP ONE OF THESE
BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR OUTFLOW-DOMINANT
STORMS AND MEAGER WIND SHEAR, THE OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOCALIZED AND TRANSIENT TO PRECLUDE WATCH
ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/GUYER.. 06/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39270453 39310480 39530496 40290504 40910487 41580348
41620292 41400259 41060232 40780212 40330211 39970215
39640227 39430267 39270453
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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