920
ACUS11 KWNS 032207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032207
SDZ000-NEZ000-040000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 032207Z - 040000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT CASTS
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM LONGEVITY AND WHETHER ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE
WILL BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST HOUR, DEEPENING CUMULUS AND INITIAL
STAGES OF SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAVE BECOME APPARENT
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND ALONG/NORTH OF A NORTHWARD PROPAGATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NE. THIS ACTIVITY IS MATURING
WITHIN THE REGIONAL BUOYANCY MAXIMUM WHERE LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE
ORDER OF -6 TO -8 C AND SBCAPE IS ESTIMATED UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF WW 271.
HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RAP MESOANALYSIS,
WEAKER MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT IS CONTRIBUTING TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 25 KNOTS. WHILE
SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL SUPERCELLS, GIVEN THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF
DEVELOPING CONVECTION EVIDENT IN GOES IMAGERY, LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS SHOULD BE THE MOST PROBABLE STORM MODE WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, BUT FOCUSED
FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE MORE LINEAR MODES AND A PREDOMINANT
WIND THREAT. REGARDLESS, THE MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH
THE RELATIVELY CONFINED SPATIAL CORRIDOR BETWEEN WW 271 AND A COLD
POOL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NE CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG-LIVED
AND/OR WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE.
..MOORE/GUYER.. 06/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 41430022 41500061 41690110 42000142 42350162 42660166
42880154 43010126 42969983 43019874 43079811 43069779
42929756 42679749 42339762 42139778 41859811 41679848
41529894 41429933 41419977 41430022
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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