093
ACUS11 KWNS 032317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032316
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-040045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 271...
VALID 032316Z - 040045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 271 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED SEVERE
GUSTS, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF
PIERRE, SD, WITH ANOTHER INTENSIFYING CELL NOTED WEST OF HURON.
THESE TWO CELLS MAY POSE THE GREATEST NEAR-TERM SEVERE THREAT,
THOUGH INTENSIFICATION OF ADDITIONAL CELLS IS EXPECTED WITH TIME
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SD AND SOUTHEAST ND. MLCAPE OF GREATER THAN
2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40+ KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES, WITH A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE
GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS CURRENTLY RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE REGION,
THOUGH SOME INCREASE WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE THE MODEST FLOW, LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN
EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES IN THE 100-200 M2/S2 RANGE, AND SOME TORNADO
THREAT COULD EVOLVE WITH TIME, ESPECIALLY WHERE VORTICITY IS LOCALLY
ENHANCED NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL SD, AND ALONG A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST ND.
..DEAN.. 06/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 43350086 44070039 45649903 45879878 46169840 46309789
46329745 46359708 46299673 45449682 45129690 44889701
43869744 43269782 43039856 43099954 43100101 43350086
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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