279
ACUS11 KWNS 040032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040032
TXZ000-NMZ000-040230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 040032Z - 040230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO AS CONVECTIVE BANDS MIGRATE EAST INTO A BUOYANT AIR MASS.
DISCUSSION...REFLECTIVITY AND VELOCITY IMAGERY FROM KFDX SHOWS A
PAIR OF CONVECTIVE BANDS PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST AND
NORTHEAST NM. BASED ON THE SPEED OF PROPAGATION AND LACK OF
APPRECIABLE SHEAR IN THE REGION, THESE BANDS ARE MAINLY BEING DRIVEN
BY COLD POOL PROPAGATION INTO A BUOYANT AIR MASS. LATEST RAP
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A REGIONAL BUOYANCY MAXIMUM IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM, WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE BANDS
AND MAY PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY,
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE RECENTLY ANALYZED AT ABOUT 9 C/KM, WHICH
WILL FACILITATE MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. CONSEQUENTLY, SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS COULD MANIFEST OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION.
..MOORE/GUYER.. 06/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34920529 35150483 35540450 36060427 36450391 36580345
36500312 36220292 35200293 34870310 34660341 34520382
34520450 34610494 34670504 34920529
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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