522
ACUS11 KWNS 041827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041826
SDZ000-042000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 041826Z - 042000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH WITH CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE THE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED SOUTHEAST OF PIERRE, SOUTH DAKOTA. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED BRIEF PERIODS OF COOLER CLOUD TOPS
INDICATIVE OF MARGINALLY STRONGER/DEEPER UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AS SAMPLED BY THE 18Z UNR/ABR OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS) AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES MLCIN CONTINUES TO ERODE, WITH DEEPENING CUMULUS NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMID WARMING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND SEVERE THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 06/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 44519958 44729942 44929901 44929888 45009825 45059758
44969717 44769696 44539688 44269687 43889703 43739722
43619777 43589825 43579876 43629924 43829951 44219964
44519958
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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