297
ACUS11 KWNS 041830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041829
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-042130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 041829Z - 042130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING
GUSTS OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS
AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NE, WHILE SURFACE OBS SHOW A WEAK LOW NEAR
RUSSELL KS. EAST OF THIS FEATURE, A LEADING OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM
JUST WEST OF THE NE/IA BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SURFACE LOW.
A WARMING AIR MASS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS IS
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHEAST NE AND TRAILING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS. THE 18Z OAX AND TOP
SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH PWAT BUT POOR LAPSE RATES OVERALL AND LIGHTLY
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT.
AS HEATING CONTINUES, THE ZONE AHEAD OF THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE INCREASED STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE
MODIFYING OUTFLOW AND AHEAD OF THE MCV MAY INCREASE LATER TODAY,
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL, THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS COMBINED WITH LOCALLY STRONGER 0-1
SRH MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE, MARGINAL
HAIL OR LOCALIZED DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR.
..JEWELL/MOSIER.. 06/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39749857 40039715 40429643 40859585 41649517 41729465
41269450 40229495 39749527 39369567 39059639 38959731
39079801 39249841 39529869 39749857
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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