883
ACUS11 KWNS 042246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042246
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-050015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MT...NORTHEAST WY...WESTERN SD...SOUTHWEST
ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272...
VALID 042246Z - 050015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING AS OF 2230 UTC FROM
SOUTHEAST MT/SOUTHWEST ND INTO NORTHEAST WY. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH MLCAPE OF
NEAR/ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40+ KT. A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MT SHOULD HELP TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH AT LEAST TRANSIENT
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND STRONGER MLCINH ARE IN PLACE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS, BUT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT,
ALONG/NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL SD. IF A LARGER-SCALE OUTFLOW CAN DEVELOP FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION, THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING.
..DEAN.. 06/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
LAT...LON 47500497 46620348 45930255 45350225 44530235 43600260
43290274 43210296 43310351 43420474 43440598 44110606
45280624 47140590 47500497
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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