244
ACUS11 KWNS 050032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050031
SDZ000-NEZ000-050230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SD AND EXTREME NORTHWEST NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272...273...
VALID 050031Z - 050230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272, 273
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH AN INCREASING THREAT POSSIBLE WITH TIME INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL SD, TO THE WEST/NORTH OF HURON. THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOPED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE, WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF NEAR/ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND INCREASING
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. LARGE TO LOCALLY VERY LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING, AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND MODESTLY ENHANCED
EFFECTIVE SRH. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS CLUSTER, ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH DUSK ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD.
LATER THIS EVENING, OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN SD MAY BEGIN TO INTERSECT RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
BUOYANCY ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO
UPSCALE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL MCS (AS DEPICTED BY RECENT
HRRR RUNS), THOUGH THIS EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK OF
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD SUCH AN EVOLUTION OCCUR, A GREATER
THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
SD LATER THIS EVENING.
..DEAN.. 06/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44219675 43509816 42850071 42850153 42820252 43830286
44290272 44510152 44580102 44879954 45019781 45049685
44219675
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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