323
ACUS11 KWNS 051813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051812
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-051945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051812Z - 051945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL AS THEY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASINGLY AGITATED CUMULUS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WEAK SURFACE
LOW ANALYZED NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER, WITH RECENT LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY NOTED WITH A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM IN WILKIN COUNTY, MN.
CONTINUED HEATING OF A MOIST, LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S F) IS SUPPORTING AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE, WITH FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION LIKELY TO SUPPORT 1500-2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER EAST, EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
MARGINALLY GREATER ACROSS THIS REGION, WITH 30-35 KTS ANALYZED PER
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-7.0
C/KM PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS) WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL WITH INITIALLY DISCRETE CONVECTION, WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO PROMOTING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WITH TIME, EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO ORGANIZE ALONG
DEVELOPING COLD POOLS INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING SEGMENTS/CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS, WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 06/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 46269414 45699396 45209393 44889401 44629427 44519467
44529548 44669633 44809684 45119736 45379745 45719736
46459664 46849616 46999590 46979528 46809482 46649461
46269414
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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