165
ACUS11 KWNS 051938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051938
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-052115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 051938Z - 052115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE WI/MN BORDER HAS
SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BOWING SEGMENT/CLUSTER
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO NOTED ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
LAKE BREEZE INLAND OF THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE
THIS CONVECTION HAS LARGELY REMAINED SUB-SEVERE THROUGH 1930 UTC,
PRODUCING A REPORT OF PEA SIZED HAIL AND A MEASURED GUST OF 48 MPH,
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BUOYANCY AMID
CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING (PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS) MAY SUPPORT SOME
INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS CLUSTER PROGRESSES EASTWARD. SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ROBUST CORES EVEN
THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
DESPITE THE INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR AN
UPTICK IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL, WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR (20-25 KTS
OR LESS) IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY TEMPER STORM ORGANIZATION AND
SEVERITY. THUS, WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 06/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46569220 46818967 46878812 46688715 46408660 45868646
45398669 44778723 44568768 44388816 44338917 44349047
44559184 44719257 44969289 45289308 45659309 46169277
46569220
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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