509
ACUS11 KWNS 060119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060119
IAZ000-MOZ000-060245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA INTO FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 060119Z - 060245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN IA THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL RISK. THE NEED FOR A WW IS
UNCLEAR.
DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXPANDING CUMULUS
FIELD ALONG A DIFFUSE THETA-E GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. OVER THE
LAST HOUR, SEVERAL CUMULUS TOWERS HAVE DEEPENED NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
WEAK ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH VISIBLE ON WV IMAGERY IS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION THIS EVENING, BUT THIS REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.
THE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F. THIS IS SUPPORTING
LARGE BUOYANCY AND LITTLE INHIBITION FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS. 30-40 KT
DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS. GIVEN THE PARAMETER SPACE (3000 J/KG MLCAPE + 30-35 KTS
EWD) THESE STORMS WOULD BE CONDITIONALLY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS. WHILE SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING
SHOW LITTLE INHIBITION, THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING AND THE SLOW EVOLUTION
OF THE CUMULUS HINT THAT INHIBITION REMAINS FAIRLY STOUT FARTHER
EAST. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, IT IS UNCLEAR HOW INTENSE OR
WIDESPREAD THESE STORMS COULD BE. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLUSTERS ONGOING
FARTHER WEST AND THE ONSET OF A 20-25 KT LOW-LEVEL JET LATER THIS
EVENING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS LOW, SOME
SEVERE RISK MAY MATERIALIZE. CONDITIONS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..LYONS/GLEASON.. 06/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 41669314 41739166 41539131 41149127 40659194 40519291
40539378 40559439 40719487 41269488 41669314
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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