814
FNUS21 KWNS 061656
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SAT JUN 06 2026
VALID 061700Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHWEST...
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED AREA OVER WY WAS EXPANDED
COMMENSURATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE HOT, DRY,
AND WINDY CONDITIONS PROGRESSING FARTHER NORTHEAST TODAY. VERY
LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS OF SOUTHWEST UT. THE CERTAINTY,
AREAL EXTENT, AND LIMITED DURATION PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY
DRAWN AREAS WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATE. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF THIS
SAME AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED CONDITIONS EXCEEDING 18 HOURS OF
DURATION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS SHOWS FULLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGINNING TO
EXCEED 15 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT AND WY COMBINED WITH RHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS ALREADY THIS MORNING. A QUICK-MOVING
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR NORTHERN UT
TONIGHT, BUT THE THREAT DOESN'T APPEAR WIDESPREAD OR CERTAIN ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE A DRAWN RISK AREA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.
..STEARNS.. 06/06/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0205 AM CDT SAT JUN 06 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AN INTENSIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A LEE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN MT BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, OVERSPREADING A DRY AND
HOT AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ATOP DRY
FUELS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
..GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTENSIFIES, TWO BELTS OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS, ALONG WITH AN
ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE DEEPENING LEE LOW IN
NORTHERN MT WILL BOLSTER SURFACE WINDS TO 20-30 MPH FROM
NORTHEASTERN NV SOUTHWARD INTO UT, NORTHERN AZ AND WESTERN CO. IN
COMBINATION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH OF 10-20%, WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AMID A
DRY FUELSCAPE.
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY ALSO EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NV INTO FAR SOUTHERN OR ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS.
SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS (20-25 MPH) AND RH BELOW 20%
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LESS RECEPTIVE FUELS, OWING TO
GREATER RAINFALL IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS, SUGGESTS CRITICAL CONDITIONS,
WHILE POSSIBLE, WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED.
WEAKER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ AND THE FOUR CORNERS WILL STILL
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONDITIONS WITH 10-20% RH AND SURFACE
GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH. POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY LOCAL TERRAIN, SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP GIVEN DRYING
FUELS AND INCREASING BURN PERIOD DURATION.
..ID AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
ASCENT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MODEST SURFACE MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR
THE LEE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH. THIS ASCENT AND DIURNAL HEATING
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN ID
AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MT. LIKELY HIGH-BASED, THESE FAST-MOVING STORMS
WOULD HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DRIER STRIKES. HOWEVER, FORECAST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SPARSE
AND AREAS WHERE STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP HAVE FUELS THAT
ARE LESS RECEPTIVE TO STARTS.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE ROCKIES, ENHANCED LEE TROUGH
WILL AIDE IN MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN CO AND SOUTHERN WY AND WESTERN NE.
FAST STORM MOTIONS, AND HIGH CLOUD BASES SUGGEST THESE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. WITH POCKETS OF DRIER FUELS
PRESENT, ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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