466
ACUS11 KWNS 061728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061728
OKZ000-TXZ000-061900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061728Z - 061900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
BRIEF LANDSPOUT MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WEST/NORTHWEST OF
ABILENE HAS RECENTLY EXHIBITED AN UPTICK IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, WITH
MRMS AND OTHER MESH ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 0.5-1" WITH A MARGINAL
SUPERCELL LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER AS OF 1700
UTC. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
(AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z FWD/OUN OBSERVED SOUNDINGS) IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, WITH
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE EXPECTED BY PEAK HEATING. WHILE DEEP-LAYER
FLOW REMAINS MODEST AT BEST, MARGINALLY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL CLOSED
LOW/MCV LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND
25-30 (LOCALLY UP TO 35) KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, SUFFICIENT FOR
MARGINAL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.
PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5-1.6" (UP TO 1.9" SAMPLED BY THE 12 FWD
SOUNDING) AND A MODEST STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (OWING TO
DIURNAL HEATING) WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER LOADED
DOWNBURSTS, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS THAT CAN
DEVELOP. MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WHILE GENERALLY
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LARGELY TEMPER THE OVERALL HAIL
THREAT, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
FINALLY, A BRIEF LANDSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT SHOULD A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT INTERACT WITH ENHANCED SURFACE VERTICAL VORTICITY
ALONG A SURFACE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE RISK TO REMAIN LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE, WATCH
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
..CHALMERS/THOMPSON.. 06/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31890113 32570108 33160086 33730052 34140007 34369957
34579890 34709786 34559724 34279684 33889660 33469649
33079651 32419689 31979749 30969895 30659929 30559962
30579997 30760042 31130087 31890113
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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