131
ACUS11 KWNS 070058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070058
ARZ000-OKZ000-070200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...LFAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 070058Z - 070200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SPORADIC
DAMAGING GUSTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO WITH A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. BROADER ORGANIZATION IS UNLIKELY AND A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF STORMS HAD
DEVELOPED NEAR A REMNANT MCV ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OK AND
WESTERN AR. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S F. THIS IS SUPPORTING LOW CLOUD BASES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY
WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. LOCALLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR
THE MCV IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE SRX VAD SHOWING
100-200 M2/S2 OF ESRH. THIS IS SUPPORTING WEAK STORM-BASED ROTATION
WITHIN THE BAND OF STORMS. WHILE THE LACK OF BROADER ASCENT AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED/TRANSIENT,
SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND LOCAL RISK, A WW
IS NOT EXPECTED.
..LYONS/GLEASON.. 06/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35069461 35759484 36179491 36339450 36169375 35829332
35429309 35009304 34379356 34269389 34219420 34309427
34589448 35069461
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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