238
ACUS11 KWNS 070254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070254
NDZ000-MTZ000-070500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283...
VALID 070254Z - 070500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE LIKELY. SOME
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...ACROSS WW283, SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED ALONG A SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT IN MT
AND ND IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE, (MAX MUCAPE ~3000 J/KG) WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE ROBUST (50-60 KT
EBWD) AS THE MAIN BELT OF 50+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL ZONE. A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO AID IN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE INITIAL STAGES OF UPSCALE GROWTH ALONG THE
FRONT ARE UNDERWAY. AS THE STORMS INTERACT, THEY SHOULD MERGE INTO
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A BOWING SEGMENT OR TWO. THIS
APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND NORTHEASTWARD WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THE STRONG BUOYANCY AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE WILL LIKELY FAVOR
EFFICIENT DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM NORTHEASTERN
MT, NORTHWEST ND TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SEVERE GUSTS, WITH
A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND SUPPORTED BY
RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. SOME HAIL RISK MAY ALSO REMAIN WITH THE MORE
CELLULAR ELEMENTS.
..LYONS.. 06/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 46440655 47270760 48050719 48660666 49100630 49080534
49070186 48970187 47490303 46030393 46440655
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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