351
ACUS11 KWNS 071951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071950
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-072145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA...WESTERN DAKOTAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 071950Z - 072145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT WIND RISK (80-100 MPH) WILL
EMERGE INTO AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING ACROSS THE BIG HORN
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS, WITH MLCIN
SLOWLY ERODING. CONSENSUS AMONG HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THAT
THIS REGION WILL THE ORIGIN OF INITIAL CLUSTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S HAS YIELDED A
GRADIENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2500 J/KG. 18Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM RAPID CITY, SD AND BISMARK, ND SAMPLED STEEP
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8.5 C/KM.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING CONVECTION WILL GROW UPSCALE OUT OF
WYOMING/MONTANA INTO AN INTENSE MCS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. EARLY WOFS RUNS ARE ALSO COMING
INTO ALIGNMENT WITH TRENDS INDICATING A SWATH OF SEVERE TO INTENSE
WIND ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. INITIALLY, SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL BEFORE GROWING UPSCALE AND
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION TO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE DOWNSTREAM MAINTENANCE OF THIS MCS INTO THE LATE
EVENING. A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
..THORNTON/SMITH.. 06/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
LAT...LON 43550431 43610596 44090684 44830742 45560751 46120706
46740535 48030414 49110371 49230209 49070057 48420056
47720065 46550092 45770117 45050199 44430258 43840355
43550431
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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