896
FNUS21 KWNS 081640
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2026
VALID 081700Z - 091200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
GREAT
BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
..NORTHWESTERN NM INTO SOUTHERN CO
DAYTIME INSTABILITY, INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND PRESENCE OF A DRY, SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NM. FUELS CONTINUE
TO DRY WITH ERC PERCENTILES AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH COULD BETTER SUPPORT LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NM
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CO AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
CO WAS WARRANTED BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.
..SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL
HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN NV AND SOUTHERN
ID BASED ON LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE, SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS,
LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL AND NEAR CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. OTHERWISE,
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR EXPANSIVE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND RH OF
5-15% BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN AZ,
SOUTHERN UT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL WY.
..WILLIAMS.. 06/08/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0131 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
WITH PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH A BELT OF STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DRY AIR MASS AND DRY FUELS ARE IN PLACE, LEADING
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK IN THESE AREAS
..SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
STRONG VERTICAL MIXING ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS TO 20-30 MPH AND RH NEAR 5-15% IN THE
AFTERNOON. FUELS IN THE AREA HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY DRY GENERALLY
WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY EXACERBATING THE DRY FUELS.
THEREFORE, A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK HAS BEEN MAINTAINED HERE.
..NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH A COMPACT JET MAX ALOFT
OVERLAPPING A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAST STORM
MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS, HAVE MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDER AREA
HERE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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